Welcome to Part 7 of our series, where we've so far armed you with the theoretical knowledge and practical tools necessary to navigate the sports betting landscape confidently. From understanding the basics of sports betting and the nuances of various betting markets to mastering the calculation of expected value and recognizing the impact of vigorish, we've covered a lot of ground.
Now, it's time to put all these concepts together and show you how to actively apply your newfound expertise to identify, analyze, and capitalize on positive-EV opportunities using Optimal+. To recap:
In this installment, we will delve into practical applications of the strategies we've discussed, leveraging the Optimal+ platform to maximize your betting success.
We’ll cover how to use the features of Optimal+ to streamline the process of finding bets with positive expected value across various markets. We will also take you through the platform's tools that help detect undervalued bets, providing a practical edge in real-time betting environments.
By the end of Part 7, you will not only understand how to apply the concepts from the previous parts of this series but also how to actively engage with them using Optimal+.
Our goal is to empower you to not just learn about sports betting but to excel at it, turning theoretical knowledge into practical, profitable actions.
There are literally thousands of bets available at every moment of every day. The vast majority of these wagering opportunities represent negative EV opportunities that we want to avoid.
Optimal+ sorts through the market and feeds you opportunities on a consolidated feed, delivered right to your phone.
Optimal+ is designed to deliver you all current positive-EV picks on the market in real-time. There are several proprietary models that Optimal uses to surface betting opportunities, each using specific approaches to identify value discrepancies.
When you click on this tab in the app, you will be presented with a list of bets that Optimal+ has calculated to present a positive-EV opportunity.
Let’s a look at that screen now:
Optimal+ feeds you the list of positive-EV opportunities in order of bet quality, which is represented by a letter grade. These letter grades are given based on a combination of highest-EV, and other quality measures like win rate and market width.
The first selection in the list is a prop bet for Max Strus (Cleveland Cavaliers) whose rebounds total has been set at +110 at MGM (note the sportsbook logo next to the “NBA” label. The bet also notes that it has a grade of A- (very strong quality) and was surfaced by the Optimal Smart Money model.
When we click on that bet, we’re taken to this screen:
Let’s go through the details of this EV-betting opportunity that Optimal+ presented. We’ll be using previously learned concepts to explain what we’re seeing here.
In practical terms, you should be wagering $102 to win $100 (at -102 odds). Instead you only need to wager $90.91 to win $100 (at +110 odds) if you place this bet at MGM. If you win this bet, you’ve put less money to work to win, improving your ROI. If you lose, you’ve lost $11.09 less than you otherwise would have.
This is why EV betting strategies are so powerful - you’re buying a probability on sale, and you pocket this difference over time.
Optimal leverages a diverse array of betting models to pinpoint +EV opportunities for bettors. These models vary in complexity, ranging from straightforward to advanced AI-driven systems. Here’s an overview of each model and how they can help you secure profitable bets:
The Outlier Hunter model excels in identifying bets with exceptional value by analyzing and comparing sportsbook lines against their averages. This model highlights significant line deviations, suggesting these as potential opportunities for profit.
The Sharp Books model pinpoints the sportsbook with the tightest market width, using it as a benchmark to uncover mispriced betting opportunities across the entire betting ecosystem. By focusing on the "sharpest" lines, it helps bettors exploit inefficiencies in other books.
The Smart Money model targets bets that are attracting the attention of the most knowledgeable and seasoned bettors. By tracking where these expert bettors are placing their wagers, this model helps you follow the money to where significant insights are likely driving betting decisions.
Known for its precision, the Pinnacle Model compares the odds offered by Pinnacle Sports—a leader in reflecting true outcome probabilities—with those of other sportsbooks. This comparison helps identify value bets where other books may offer more favorable terms.
The Momentum model forecasts potentially successful bets by analyzing recent performances of players throughout the season against the current betting lines. Utilizing statistical analysis, it identifies bets with a high potential for positive expected value, making it invaluable for trend-based betting strategies.
Optimal’s Pick’em Edge model integrates seamlessly with new fantasy pick’em apps like Underdog, PrizePicks, and ParlayPlay to identify outlier betting opportunities. This model sifts through various pick’em bets to find those with significant deviations from expected outcomes, offering a unique edge.
The Arbitrage model is designed for virtually risk-free betting by placing wagers on all possible outcomes of an event across different bookmakers. This strategy guarantees a profit, regardless of the event’s result, by exploiting odds discrepancies between bookmakers.
Each of these models offers a unique approach to sports betting, empowering you to make more informed decisions and enhance your betting strategy. Whether you're looking for a data-driven edge, following the smart money, or securing a guaranteed profit through arbitrage, Optimal+ provides the tools you need to succeed.
As we conclude Part 7 of our series on profitable sports betting, we've successfully bridged the gap between theoretical knowledge and practical application. Using the Optimal+ platform, we have shown how to implement advanced betting strategies that harness the full power of expected value calculations and market analysis.
By exploring the detailed functionalities of Optimal+ and its diverse array of betting models, you now have the tools to identify and exploit positive-EV opportunities across various betting markets efficiently.
