Welcome back to our series on profitable sports betting, where we aim to turn beginners into profitable sports bettors. Before we dive into the rich diversity of betting markets, let's briefly recap the key concepts we've covered so far:
Now, let’s broaden our scope to the different types of betting markets. Understanding these can significantly enhance your ability to spot value and make strategic bets. We’ll look at each market type and discuss how they vary across different sports, including NFL, NBA, College Football, College Basketball, MLB, NHL, and Golf.
The following content is intended to give a primer on the most common wagers on the retail sportsbook apps. It is by no means an exhaustive list, nor does it delve into the nuances of each bet type.
If you’re already well-versed in the betting menus offered by the major retail books, you can skim through this section.
The Moneyline bet is the simplest and most straightforward form of betting. You pick the winner of a game without any point spread. The odds reflect the likelihood of each team winning as perceived by the bookmakers.
In an NFL matchup between the New England Patriots and New York Jets, the Patriots might be listed at -150, and the Jets at +130. Betting $150 on the Patriots would net $100 if they win, whereas a $100 bet on the Jets would net $130 if they pull off an upset.
Point spread betting involves the bookmaker handicapping the favorite by a certain number of points, creating an even playing field for betting purposes. The favorite must win by more than the spread to cover, while the underdog must either win outright or lose by less than the spread to cover.
In an NBA game, the Los Angeles Lakers could be favored to beat the Miami Heat by 7.5 points (-7.5). If you bet on the Lakers, they need to win by at least 8 points. A bet on the Heat pays if they win outright or lose by 7 points or fewer.
Totals betting involves wagering on whether the combined score of both teams in a game will be over or under a predetermined amount set by bookmakers.
During an MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers, if the total is set at 8.5 runs, bettors can wager on whether the final combined score will exceed or fall short of this number.
Game props are bets on specific events or milestones within a game that do not directly relate to the final outcome or score. These can include various scenarios from scoring first to specific in-game achievements.
In an NHL game, a prop bet could involve wagering on whether the Boston Bruins will score a power-play goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Player props focus on the performances of individual players rather than the outcome of the game. Bettors wager on specific statistical achievements by players.
For an NFL game, a prop bet might involve whether Patrick Mahomes will throw for more or less than 250.5 yards.
Parlays combine multiple bets into one, linking two or more wagers. All selected bets must win for the parlay to pay out, compounding the odds but also the risk.
A parlay might involve betting on the New York Yankees to win over the Boston Red Sox and combining it with an over 7.5 runs total in the same game. Both conditions must be met to win the bet.
Teasers are a type of parlay in which bettors can adjust the point spreads or totals in their favor in exchange for reduced odds. Common in basketball and football.
A bettor might use a teaser to adjust the point spread by 6 points in a two-team parlay, changing the Chicago Bulls from +2 to +8 and the Houston Rockets from -3 to +3.
Futures involve betting on the outcomes of future events, such as championships or season achievements, well in advance of their conclusion.
Before the MLB season starts, one might place a future bet on the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the World Series.
To understand these markets at a deeper level, it's essential to understand two critical concepts in sports betting: market liquidity and how betting volume impacts the odds.
Market liquidity refers to the amount of money wagered in a betting market. High liquidity means a lot of money is being bet, which typically results in tighter odds spreads—the difference between the odds for the favorite and the underdog. These markets adjust quickly as new information comes in because the high volume of bets helps bookmakers feel confident in their lines.
Betting volume, or the total amount bet in a particular market, directly influences how bookmakers set and adjust odds.
In highly liquid markets like the NFL, vast sums are wagered, leading to very narrow odds spreads. This makes these markets less volatile but more difficult to beat because the bookmakers have more information and confidence in their odds.
In Part 2 of this series, we learned that the market making books use progressively higher betting limits to glean information from their sharp customers while minimizing their risk. As confidence in their line improves, the limits increase. By the time the limit restrictions are removed, that final line has been hammered into place by many millions of dollars of wagers.
Conversely, less liquid markets, such as player props (bets on individual player performance), involve much lower volumes and betting limits. A retail sportsbook may place a limit of $250,000 on point spread bets, but limit player props to $500 max. The price discovery that happens in low-liquidity/low-limit markets is nowhere near as robust as the major professional game markets.
This results in broader odds spreads and potentially more favorable conditions for astute bettors. These markets can be easier to beat as they are not as tightly controlled or accurately set, offering opportunities for those with deep knowledge of specific players or situations.
Understanding these dynamics is crucial for strategizing where and how to place bets, especially if you're looking to find an edge in less scrutinized markets.
In sports betting, market width plays a crucial role in assessing the competitiveness of betting odds and the efficiency of the market. Market width is essentially the difference or gap between the odds offered by a sportsbook on opposite sides of a bet, such as a favorite and an underdog in a Moneyline bet, or an over and an under in a totals bet. This difference is also known as the margin and directly affects the implied probability and potential profitability of any wager.
Market width arises from the difference between the odds (or prices) on either side of a bet. For instance, in a Moneyline bet, the difference between the favorite's and underdog's odds forms the market width. In totals and point spreads, it's the gap between the lines on over and under, or positive and negative spreads.
Sportsbooks set market width based on various factors:
Note that the above guidance on “good” and “bad” are most applicable to main line bets - point spreads, moneyline and totals on major markets like the NFL or NBA.
In player prop bets, sportsbooks have far less liquid market and therefore set the widths wider by design. A good rule of thumb in player prop widths is to look for bets that are 40 width or narrower.
Understanding the various betting markets enhances your ability to make informed decisions tailored to your sports knowledge and betting preferences. Each market offers unique opportunities and challenges, providing numerous ways to engage with sports betting.
In Part 5, we explore the reason that 95% of all recreational sports bettors lose money over time: The vig.
