At Optimal, our mission is to help you win. It’s that simple.
That mission is what inspired us to create this comprehensive guide to becoming a long term profitable sports bettor.
Whether you're a die-hard sports fan looking to enhance your viewing experience, or someone fascinated by the analytics of betting, grasping the basics of sports betting—and the concept of Expected Value (EV)—is vital for long-term profitability.
In this inaugural post of our 10-part series on using Optimal to bet profitably, we'll explore the fundamental concepts of sports betting and introduce the cornerstone of profitable betting: Expected Value.
At the core of successful sports betting lies the concept of expected value (EV). Expected value is a statistical measure used to determine the average outcome of a given scenario if it were to be repeated multiple times. In betting, EV helps bettors understand whether a bet offers a favorable or unfavorable outcome over time.
Consider the odds in a simple coin flip scenario. There are two possible outcomes—the coin will land on either heads or tails, each with a 50% probability.
Suppose you make a $100 bet on heads at even money odds (+100). You have a 50% chance of winning $100 (if it lands on heads) and a 50% chance of losing $100 (if it lands on tails). The expected value of that bet over the long run is zero. Theoretically, you’ll win the bet 50% of the time and lose the bet 50% of the time, resulting in a net profit of $0.
Now, let’s modify the example: you place a $100 wager on heads, but only win $99 each time it lands on heads. Conversely, you lose $100 each time it lands on tails. The expected value of this bet over the long run is negative.
Why? Because with a 50/50 chance to win, you're only winning $99 for every win, while losing $100 for every loss. Over 100 coin flips, where you would expect to win 50 and lose 50, the math works out as follows:
Thus, taking this bet sets you up to lose money over the long run, as you’re losing a theoretical $.50 for every $100 you wager.
Who in their right mind would accept a 50/50 bet that pays less than even money? Surprisingly, 95% of sports gamblers fall into this trap every day. The sports gambling marketplace is structured to pay you less than the true odds of any outcome due to the built-in house advantage known as the vig, or juice. Continuing with the coin flip example, most bookmakers would effectively pay about $99 for both heads and tails, leading your bankroll to gradually deplete to zero.
This negative EV setup, created by the sportsbooks' use of vig, is why 95% of sports bettors lose money over time.
Expected value is critical because it helps identify bets that offer a positive return on investment (ROI) over time. A positive EV indicates a profitable bet, while a negative EV suggests a loss over the long run. By focusing on positive EV bets, you can enhance your chances of becoming a successful and profitable sports bettor.
The key to betting profitably over the long run is to avoid negative EV wagers and seek out bets where the pricing posted by the bookmaker results in a positive expected value for you.
If you're going to bet sports profitably, it’s imperative to steer clear of negative EV opportunities. Optimal’s platform calculates the expected value of any potential wager for you, so you don't have to stress over manual calculations. We’ll save our more detailed discussion on calculating EV for our upcoming post on EV Betting Fundamentals; for now, just remember:
If your goal is to profit from sports betting, you must focus on placing positive EV wagers. And if you need assistance finding and analyzing those wagers, Optimal is here to help.
As we delve deeper into this series, we'll explore more advanced concepts and strategies in sports betting. These topics include understanding betting markets, using statistical analysis to make informed bets, managing your bankroll, and employing betting strategies that both sharp recreational gamblers and professional bettors use to minimize risks and maximize returns.
Understanding the basics of sports betting and the concept of expected value is crucial for anyone aiming to bet profitably. It's not merely about picking winners, but about identifying value in the odds provided. This foundational knowledge will pave the way for a deeper exploration of smarter, more profitable betting strategies in our upcoming posts.
Stay tuned for the next installment of this series, where we will delve into the world of oddsmaking, and explore how sportsbooks set and update their lines.
